The Gartner hype cycle is an analytical construct (of sorts) which tries to capture the relation between a technology and the expectations we have for that technology. It’s based on the pretty reasonable observation that esp with new technology, there’s a tendency for expectations to outrun the current or even potential benefits. Everyone wants to use the new glittery magic, so vendors and specialising consultants do very well for a while. But it turns out that the new technology isn’t magic, so people find that they’ve spent a bunch of money and time and energy and they still have the problems the tech was supposed to magically solve. This leads to a crash in expectations and a backlash against the tech. But lots of new tech is actually useful, used appropriately, so some of the new tech, its shiny worn off, finds a place in our toolkit and tech landscape. The Gartner hype cycle is a pretty iconic graph with fun-ish labels:
(The y-axis gets different labels over time.)
And people try to operationalise it:
But I’m skeptical about a lot of this as being rigorously evaluate.
Of course, sometimes a tech takes off and doesn’t really stop. It goes pretty straight from trigger to productivity. The iPhone/iPhone style phones comes to mind. It Just Grew. It may level off as it hits saturation, but that’s a completely different phenomenon.
This is all pretty banal stuff, but Gartner takes it very seriously (they’ve branded it!).
ANYWAY, this year’s hype cycle, excitingly, includes ontology management for the first time! WE’RE ON THE MAP!
- 16 new technologies included in the Hype Cycle for the first time this year. These technologies include 4D Printing, Blockchain, General-Purpose Machine Intelligence, 802.11ax, Context Brokering, Neuromorphic Hardware, Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS), Personal Analytics, Smart Workspace, Smart Data Discovery, Commercial UAVs (Drones), Connected Home, Machine Learning, Nanotube Electronics, Software-Defined Anything (SDx), and Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management,
Alas, if you look at the graph, we’re on the downslope into the Trough of Disllusionment:
And it has a “more than 10 years” to mainstream adoption label.
This is discouraging and perhaps hopeful. Remember that the hype cycle doesn’t tell you much about the quality, maturity, or utility of the technology, only the perception and influence of perception on the market. (To the degree you believe it at all.) 10 years to mainstream adoption is not 10 years from being a boon for your business or a viable business itself. It means you will often have a hard sell, because people are skeptical.
Update: Oh WordPress. Picture management please.