Music Monday: My Neighbors are in Love

December 5, 2016

As 2016 draws to a close (FINALLY!!!!), both Zoe and I have a huge backlog with horrible (or missed!) deadlines to sort through. Small Brown Birds is nearly done (and overdue…ish). Zoe is in the studio (again) today to try to sort out some last issues. Most of these are pure engineering, that is, dealing with the mixing.

For those of you who’ve never recorded, it’s more like making a movie than you’d expect. The performers generally come in and do their bit a billion times against various scratch (or real) tracks (sometimes just a click track!!). One startling thing for me is how even really excellent musicians who can handle the roughest of performance situations with aplomb just fall apart in the studio. Studio performing is really different. Conversely, good studio musicians are amazing. They will come in and knock it out in no time flat. Over the past five albums I’ve grown increasingly convinced that professional studio musicians are the way to go. Even people who record a lot of their own stuff often and well have trouble with being a session musician.

(The classic Doonesbury sequence about the recording of Ginny’s song is spot on. You want a Jay “Wah Wah” Graydon there going “You mean, like, something in an F?”)

Anyway! Lots of good stuff going on even if I did spend my Saturday and part of Sunday tracking down wind chimes. The songs are sounding really good and getting better. Alas, some things do end up on the cutting room floor for a variety of reasons (e.g., you just can’t get the recording you want). It seems like “My Neighbors Are In Love” will have to wait for a future album. But I will taunt you with it anyway!


Starting to Sort Out the Election

November 29, 2016

There’s lots to sort out. Obviously, that it was a disaster is not something we need to sort out: We know that it was a disaster. The precise contours of the disaster will only become clear over time, but it will be pretty damn bad.

We do need to come to an understanding of what happened, including what we can or cannot know about it. Joe from lowell suggests that the election was analogous to the Iraq war from a punditry (and maybe political science?) perspective: That is, people got it very wrong and those people should have some humility and be treated as at least somewhat unreliable.

I said stuff before the election about the election outcome, so I need to figure out if I’m unreliable (or to what degree I’m unreliable). Note that this isn’t a flagellation exercise, or at least, not intended to be primarily one. If I’m relying on flawed models I should update my models! This election does seem to potentially provide some interesting new data, in any case.

Before the election:

And I really don’t think Karen24’s Llama Drama is because she’s a Rat Rogerer. I think she’s a Nervous Nellie who keeps panicking in the comments here at least partly because she can be so authoritatively reassured by other commenters. For those of us who are freaked out by the reminders that it’s not an automatic total blowout even with Donald Trump on the ballot, because (1) the MSM won’t do its fucking job and (2) so many American voters are still such horrid reactionary dumbshits, I think you underestimate how soothing it is for Bijan Parsia et al. to set us straight.

Here’s an example in that thread of me “setting them straight” with “authoritativeness”:

Look at the pattern though. “Trend” doesn’t mean “current slope”.

And look at several:

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-2016

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

It’s annoying, but there’s no evidence that he’s winning or that his line will cross hers. If it does, that will be a surprise.

I think that what I said is consistent with what happened, so I guess I would say it again in relevantly similar situations. Should the people who trusted me before trust me in the future? I…guess? I’m not going to overpredict worst case scenarios, but I don’t think I was overconfident.

One thing that did come out of this election was the idea that many aspects of campaigns matter even less than we thought. The classic view about “fundamentals” based models of elections is that modern campaigns are fairly evenly balanced so tend to cancel each other out. So all that’s left are things like the state of the economy.

One thing that was clear in this election was that the campaigns were very lop sided on some key features like get out the vote operations. This suggested that it would be a powerful natural experiment!

I would guess this range underestimates Clinton’s chances, because the models can’t account for Trump’s unusually unprofessional campaign

I’ve felt this a few times, but then I start to worry that perhaps an unusual (or unusually unprofessional) campaign might not be the sort of drag we’ve thought it would be.

Just consider two factors:

1) Advertising, esp. television
2) GOTV, esp. day of ground game

Up until now, HRC has had the airwaves to herself. It’s not clear that it’s done any good. Or, I’d like to know how it’s done good. Maybe it’s too early. Maybe it just hasn’t shown up in polling. Who knows. In the primaries, the rest of the candidates held off and Trump never collapsed. So we don’t really know what advertising will do to this heavily exposed, extremely strange candidate.

What is the effect of GOTV efforts? I believe that it will have an effect, but it might be pretty small compared to random turn out effects. It’s good bit of body english, but it doesn’t seem to be the makings of a blow out. (I’d love pointers to literature on this.)

Maybe campaigns *really* don’t matter?

wtjs formulated an interpretation of possible outcomes:

wjtssays:

But what would show us that the inept vs. ept campaign didn’t matter?

Certainly a Trump win (absent a major exogenous shock like 9/11) would. A win for Clinton along the lines of Obama’s reelection might. A convincing win for Clinton in the popular vote plus a sweep or near-sweep of the toss-up states and a win in one or two “lean R” states in the Electoral College would be pretty good evidence that campaigns do matter.

So, there we go?

One potential confounding factor is “the media” and, frankly, the FBI. One alternative story is that the last minute Comney letters were fairly strong events (given all the media priming on EMAILZ!!!) that worked to the Trump campaign’s advantage.

In general, Democrats seem to have a disadvantage in turn out (as we see dramatically in midterm elections). There are almost certainly loads of factors, but that might start the scales strongly against them. This would explain that the “vote against Trump” effect wasn’t so very strong.

Of course, the simplest explanation is just that fundamentals set the stage and a certain amount of randomness completes the job. If you make it to a major party nomination, you can win. Trump was slightly favored by the fundamentals, strongly hampered by his campaigned, but had a bit of luck.

This isn’t very satisfying! It’s particularly unhelpful for any future planning. (Lots of post mortem analysis is actually quite worthless for future planning. “Nominate a better candidate” doesn’t really help as no one is really in control of the nominations! This conclusion suggests that Bernie would not have done better. If campaign effects are small they are small in both directions. My guess is that he would have been “as likely” to lose…that is, not very likely, but it would be possible.)

Turn out is obviously critical, but our understanding of how to goose turnout is really poor. Voter suppression efforts are pure evil, but it’s unclear that they are turning elections (yet). I can’t find the reference, but apparently the Clinton campaign contacted twice the voters that the Trump campaign did. Now, some are suggesting that they ended up turning out Trump voters, but I don’t think we know the actual effects yet. If we go back to Romney-Obama, we see a large gap in effort but not a dramatic advantage:

We estimate that the presidential campaigns increased turnout by more than 10 percentage points among targeted subgroups, indicating that modern campaigns can significantly alter the size and composition of the voting population.

In this paper, we exploit the 2012 presidential campaign to assess the aggregate effects of a large-scale campaign on the size and composition of the voting population. We take advantage of variation in ground campaigning across state boundaries, extensive information on Romney and Obama campaign tactics, and detailed information on every voter in the United States to estimate the effects of the entire campaign. Our results suggest that the aggregate mobilizing effect of a presidential campaign is quite large. We estimate that the 2012 campaign increased aggregate turnout by approximately 7 percentage points

This analysis also allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of the Obama and Romney campaigns. The Obama campaign of 2012 has been championed as the most technologically-sophisticated, evidence-based campaign in history while the Romney campaign was more traditional (e.g., Issenberg 2013). When we began this project, we surveyed 46 academics, and they predicted that Obama’s campaign was almost 3 times as effective as Romney’s in mobilizing supporters.17 Do these perceptions manifest themselves in the data?

As discussed above, this analysis allows us to roughly compare the effectiveness of the Obama and Romney campaigns in mobilizing their respective supporters. Despite the purported technological sophistication of the Obama campaign and its devotion to a data-driven, evidence- based campaign, we see similar mobilization effects on both sides of Figure 3. The two campaigns were roughly comparable in their ability to turn out supporters.

One interpretation of the Romney campaign’s slight advantage with their own partisans is that Democrats are simply harder to mobilize than Republicans. Indeed, previous research suggests that, on average, GOTV interventions are more effective for conservative and high-socioeconomic- status citizens (Enos, Fowler, Vavreck 2014). The amount of effort and resources needed to mobilize Democratic supporters may be greater than that needed to mobilize Republican supporters. With this in mind, even if the Obama campaign was more advanced than the Romney campaign, this difference was not great enough to overcome this structural disadvantage

If this is confirmed in the 2016 data, it points a direction, at least, for the Democratic party: It needs needs needs to solve the GOTV problem. This would solve all sorts of problems including midterm elections, statehouse controls, etc. etc.

The problem is that we really don’t know how.


On a related note, Nate Silver is sorta claiming that his prediction was more accurate because it gave more weight to Trump’s chances of winning (plus some details of why his model gave such weight…roughly, the scenario that played out was one his model could and did contemplate). I thought that 538’s coverage and the Silver models were poorer than alternatives, esp. Sam Wang‘s. Now , Wang’s prediction was much more heavily weighted toward Clinton (i.e., 99% chance vs. ≈70% in Silver’s).

I need to think more about this.


Music Monday: That’s a Pretty Good Love

November 28, 2016

Zoe has a song called “Pretty Good Love Song” that was one of the very first songs she wrote as a singer-songwriter. It may or may not make the next album (I hope so!). I’ll explain more about it if and when we get a release, but for some reason I went a-searching for songs about pretty good love and came up with this wonderful track by Big Maybelle:

It’s a call and response song which is fun, but there an overarching lyrical structure. It starts with superlatives describing the (by contrast) understated “pretty good love”:

Baby my love is deep (How deep?)
Deep as the bottom of the ocean (How pure?)
Pure as the new born baby (How bright?)
Outshine’s the sun above
That’s a pretty good love.

But then it transitions to a more personal and direct appeal:

Baby, please come on home (Why?)
Wanna put my arms around you (Oh Yeah?)
Squeeze you till you’re ol’ black cold cream (That’s black)
That’s the way I feel about you
That’s a pretty good love.

I’m not sure what the heck “black cold cream” is doing there. It’s not clear to me whether we’re talking about the moisturiser or…well…what, exactly!

In any case, a rousing tune, beautifully and powerfully sung…what’s not to love?


Epistemic humility and existential dread

November 25, 2016

Health

I’ve been under the weather for months. Fatigue, light headedness, limb tingling, coughing, phlegm…all in different mixes. I date it to February which makes it about 10 months.

Some of this is “standard” for me. I’m immuno-strange both due to my arthritis and my arthritis meds (or so we believe). But this period has been noticeably worse. The past few weeks have been particularly annoying as the “cough/flu” symptoms have been particularly continuous (i.e., runny nose and productive cough and just so tired).

Back in February, we thought it was just some bacterial infections. My sweetie had a respiratory one (confirmed by culture) and we both had some antibiotics (two rounds for me!). There seemed close correlations between the medication and (some) improvement of the symptoms, which is some sort of indicator.

But then I didn’t get any better. And I didn’t get better. And still no. And so on.

We went through a battery of tests. We ruled out diabetes (which I was scared of having for a few weeks while waiting for the results). We also ruled out thyroid problems and B vitamin deficiency. We did a lung xray (it was clear). We did a testicle ultrasound (it was clear).

After a battery of tests we concluded that I was perfectly healthy except for all the crap I was experiencing. These could be partly stress related so I’m on a beta blocker. That’s helpful, but the symptoms have persisted through two months of beta blockers. One might have thought that the regulation of stress the beta blockers bring would have mitigated the symptoms to some degree, but no. The past few weeks testify otherwise.

At the end of all this I’m left in the following state: I don’t know what’s going on; I feel like crap; but I’m probably not going to die or have a severe hospitalisation or anything like that. I do have to figure out how to function, but it’s not the first time I’ve had some long term, debilitating, mysterious condition I had to cope with.

Epistemically, I’m at a loss. No one has any ideas or interest in pursuing further investigations (including me, at this point). Existentially, I’m pretty calm. I don’t feel any acute dread, but my ennui levels are high.

Politics

Trump won the presidential election. Unlike Brexit, I’m hard pressed to think that there will be any way out of it. The Brexit vote was  disaster, but it wasn’t the event itself. The referendum is advisory and didn’t present a specific deal. We have some further legal groundwork which supports the need for more consideration. There are people who are determined to make it happen come hell or high water and the loser opposition continues to be loser (the Labour leadership should be ashamed of itself). But it’s not wholly unreasonable to hope for the longshot.

The Trump adminstration and, thus, unified Republican government is coming. There’s no reasonable hope here. The electoral college is not going to install Clinton. There will not be an overturning recount. There’s not a shadow of a chance. Trump is the next president and the next Congress is Republican and the vacant Supreme Court seat will be filled by them (shameful though that may be procedurally).

I don’t know the precise mix of bad things coming, just that there are lots of bad things coming. Unlike in George W. Bush’s first term, there isn’t a big foreign policy idee fixe a la Iraq. But we have Ryan and the Assault on Medicare (as well as the ACA) to look forward to. Governance (i.e., the basic execution of governmental functions) is likely to be very bad, i.e., Michael Brown FEMA bad is going to look pretty good. We have a dangerous tendency toward personal profit and favoritism that goes well beyond mere incompetence.

Scary stuff.

We learned some stuff in this election, perhaps. Campaigns don’t seem to matter very much. Fundamentals based models did ok (but that’s sort of boring; the Republican won and most predicted a Republican win). Disentangling the causal picture is going to be tricky and take a while (to the degree that we can do so at all), but I think it’s fair to say that, absent some internal campaign data that dramatically shows otherwise, advertising and ground game are not big movers. Clinton’s campaign was far ahead on both of these and it didn’t do the job.

The result wasn’t “impossible” given the polling…just unlikely. The fact that Clinton has a huge popular vote win is rather surprising (FiveThirtyEight consistently gave very low probabilities (≈1%-5%) to this outcome).

It goes back to what I was saying all along: If you are the nominee of one of the two major parties, you can win. Polarization  and voting identity makes this fairly inevitable. The big issue is whether the elite interventions (esp. by the FBI and media follow up on email non-scandals) against Clinton were decisive or just noise.

With both the Brexit vote and the US election, there was reason to believe that the better outcome was coming. I’m trying not to feel too broken about that.

The outcomes are bad enough, but the knowledge failures (even if not strictly failures, due to hedging) are adding a level of additional pain. I strive to be epistemically humble. I’m well aware of the vast panoply of cognitive biases. Furthermore, I’m acutely aware of my own (specific) limitations.

And yet.

Core to my identity is being a knower, however humble, fragmentary, and fallible. “Know” has many shades of meaning and many of them are under assault in the world we are making (even if against our will). I don’t want to know the bad stuff if only because my individual capacity to resist is so limited. People with with positions and platforms a thousand times larger than mind have nearly zero ability to even mitigate these bad things.

Being a witness to disaster is terrible. Not as terrible as being the target of that disaster, but terrible enough.

Connecting

In both cases, we have complex phenomena that resist successful manipulation. There’s a sense that if we just knew the right levers to pull, we could fix things. For health issues, that almost surely is the case. With enough knowledge about the whole of my body, we should be able to alter how it works to fit a desired profile. That level of knowledge and control is far beyond us now, but it seems a bit more possible.

With the political world, it’s less obvious to me. Perhaps we’ll have a wave election in 2018 that sweeps in a Democratic congress, but this is very hard to ensure…maybe impossible. It might still happen, but it’s hard to see what we can do to further it. (Well, other than the bad things happening…but even bad things don’t seem to motivate people in the right way, i.e., against the real causes.)

It is bewildering.


Scott Eric Kaufman (SEK), RIP

November 25, 2016

It’s worth your time to delve into SEK’s writings. So much is amazingly funny, I mean laugh laugh laugh funny.

I’m fond of his visual rhetoric work but more in conception than in execution. I would have liked to take his class because he clearly had a well articulated analytical framework that enhanced his understanding and enjoyment of visual expression. I got the fact of that from his writing but never managed to internalize or adapt it from those writing.

He should have had an academic position where he had the support to develop and disseminate this work.

Much loss is challenging to deal with, even distant or indirect loss. Attenuated relationships become proxies for close ones, or perhaps resonate with the close ones.

There are no holes in our lives. Every waking moment is as encountered after a death as before. But before, the possibilities of that person — of future deed and encounters — infuse those moments with bright, happy colours. After, those imagined, no-longer-possibilities blight our experiences.

Of course, you can transcend the blight. Things that are over can inform different things to come.

Thinking of all my dead people, near and far.

Update:

Well, more of an addendum. I wrote the above on my Facebook wall and republishing here made me think more about the academic life.

For a long time I didn’t have a PhD or even an academic position. I settled in one form of precarious academic existence (there are lots of such forms!), but was, thanks to Jim Hendler and Ian Horrocks, able to get out of that precariousness into a fairly secure academic existence and even (thanks to Jeff Horty) accumulate the associated credentials and promotions (thanks to Uli Sattler).

Obviously, being an academic is not the only worthy form of existence and academic precariousness is only one sort that workers everywhere feel. I obviously think it’s a valuable form of existence and I wish we, as a society, would make it available to a wider set of people. Similarly, we should be striving to reduce all people’s precariousness or at least reduce the consequences. Things like Universal Basic Income would produce a less precarious world for nearly everyone.

Universities are (still) rich and powerful institutions. Instead of pushing further into modes of organization that exacerbate inequality and precariousness inside and outside their walls, we should be bold and strive for better ways of being.


Music Monday: More No Songs

November 21, 2016

Still feeling rather “No”esque, so here’s some “no” songs.

We have “No no no” by Milow:

It’s a cute little ditty that I just happened to find by typing “no no no” into YouTube’s search. The video has Milow street boxing with a…bear? A shaggy something at least.

And, of course, “Oh my god, I think I love you” from Crazy Ex-Girlfriend:

We have two places where “No” crops up. First in an early bridge:

But I say, “No no no! This is just about sex!”
And “No no no! Don’t be such a girl Becks!”
But then I feel the oxytocin creeping back to my brain
And all I can do is sing it again…
Oh my god, I think I like you…

And it trails off with:

But I say no no no
No no no
No no no…

These are some of the best moments in Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (which are undercut and sort of lost in the second season which is still struggling to find its footing; losing Gregg doesn’t help!). The resistance and denial go through a number of subtle (and not so subtle) shifts throughout the song which are wonderfully supported by the sequence of events. (Rebecca scrubbing herself fiercely alone in the shower is starkly contrasted with her reluctant soft tenderness as she lies down with Gregg singing “No no no”.

Interestingly, Gregg basically doesn’t exist in the song. He has no words and is often asleep or occluded during their sexual encounters. We get none of his interior life nor do we get much of their actual relationship. It really is all in her head.

I did also stumble across Meghan Trainor’s NO, but, well, it’s really not for me.


Music Monday: Various Bells

November 14, 2016

I like bells and songs about bells. I just heard the New Pornographers’ Testament To Youth In Verse:

The final refrain expresses something about how I feel these days:

The bells ring
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no…

The repeating “no”s are…less broken than the ones that might come more naturally.

Probably my favourite is Mike Doughty’s I hear the bells which is musical and lyric glory from start to finish:

Mike does a lot of cool things with piano as a rhythm instruments, which is particularly showcased here.

The chorus is sublime:

I can hear the bells are ringing joyful and triumphant and

It’s just the one line, repeated, but I do hear those bells.

One fun think is the mixture of the elevated and the quotidian. Consider the second verse:

I hear the bells; they are like emeralds, and
Glints in the night; commas and ampersands.
Your moony face; so inaccessible.
Your inner mind; so inexpressible.

“emeralds, and” rhymed with “ampersands”!!!! That’s just amazing to me. The last verse begins with a very me bit of word play:

You snooze, you lose.
Well I have snozed and lost.

The incorrect regularity of “snozed” is something I’ve enjoyed since I was a kid.

[I had a bunch more, but am weak, and deleted it.]

 


At long last…

November 8, 2016

My vote was cast weeks ago by absentee ballot. I’ve contributed a bit to various House and Senate campaigns. I feel like shit but that’s only partly related to the election.

2016 has been a pretty awful year. I’m definitely not over the Brexit referendum.

My guess is that the results today will be between my worst and best. The odds are strongly for Hillary Clinton as Prez. That’s a big deal. Trump is a cataclysm in several dimensions even above having a unified Republican government. So, whew!

Democratic control of the Senate is likely, but not as sure a bet. Clinton + Democratic Senate = pretty damn good.

Democratic control of the House is very unlikely. We’ll make some gains for sure, but it’s a long shot. HRC + Dem Senate + Dem House = me dancing around. That would take some of the sting out of Brexit follies.

So, I’m expected Clinton + Dem Senate which means, finally, a sane Supreme Court. 2018 will be ugly, but we can make some progress with this combo.

Go out and vote. I would prefer that you didn’t vote stupid and evil, so I encourage you to vote a straight Democratic ticket.

Update:

Well, that went poorly. Extremely poorly. We hit the worst case scenario. That sucks.

So, for maybe the first time in my life I’m thinking of going low-information on politics and policy.

1) There seems to be little point. Nothing good is coming down the pike in the US or UK (my polities). I’m not sure much good will happen in the EU. I don’t know how being well informed about a shitstorm does much.

2) There’s a pretty big emotional and time toll.

3) For politics, at least, it seems that all the stuff I’ve read is pretty wrong. We’re in a strange era. While some bits remain interesting (e.g., differential non-response) it doesn’t seem to add up to anything helpful. Maybe a new consensus will emerge, but it’s not like I’m going to do research in the area.

4) There’s a lot of wonderful people talking politics and policy but also a lot of nasty ones. It doesn’t take a lot for it to be annoying. This adds pointlessly to the emotional and time toll.

In the end, I know how I’m going to vote. I will vote. I’m happy to give some money. But I feel pretty hopeless otherwise. Even if I had the temperament to do canvassing and stuff, the benefit levels seem pretty low.


Music Monday: Shelter from the Storm

October 17, 2016

Bob Dylan won the Nobel Prize for Literature. That’s weird.

Prizes are weird. It’s important to remember that they don’t mean all that much and projecting too much meaning on them is a recipe for pointless misery of various sorts. One point of prizes is to encourage and support work that needs it. I like Dylan a lot, but it seems like he’s recognised enough for most purposes.

And Zoe was definitely robbed!

“Shelter from the Storm” was one of the first Dylan songs I encountered, but the Hard Rain version:

In spite of the obvious flaws in this performance, it is sublime. These lines (and their performance) hit me hard every time:

Suddenly I turned around and she was standin’ there
With silver bracelets on her wrists and flowers in her hair
She walked up to me so gracefully and took my crown of thorns
Come in, she said
I’ll give ya shelter from the storm

I took silversmithing to make those bracelets!

This version hit me so strongly that it was a long time before I could even listen to the Blood on the Tracks version. Now I like it just fine. I find the contrast between the contemplative and the raucously desperate to be delightful. They seem more like two movements of one song than alternative versions.


Everyday Sexism: “I would never have female voices on a Beatles record”

October 15, 2016

With the Trump trainwreck unfolding in slow motion, I’ve been thinking a lot about how sexism and misogyny gets transmitted and reinforced and how things have changed from when I was young! One great thing is that there is an established (if contested) framework for hearing and interpreting things like accusations of sexual assault. The fact that accusations may not come out for years or decades no longer results automatically a dismissal of veracity. People still try the move, but they have to work it pretty hard and lots of people and institutions push back.

It’s hard to overstate the magnitude of this victory, esp. when it feels like we’re slipping back. But it truly is amazing. Thanks feminism! It’s up there with the idea that unwelcome sexual activity is wrong or that women don’t exist for the sexual pleasure of men.

However, I was thinking about how things get transmitted and how implicit biases are formed. I’ve been watching bits and pieces of A Hard Day’s Night on Netflix and I remember this McCarteny quote from a book about The Beatles I read when I was in high school: “I would never have female voices on a Beatles record.” (I recall it as a reaction to Yoko Ono, but haven’t been able to verify that.)

Now, prima facie, this is just ridiculous. I mean, how stupid a criterion could you have? Especially for the Beatles who experimented with a wide range of genre’s and songs and made plenty of use of falsetto. If the voice sounds interesting, why do you care if it’s attached to a woman?

But I didn’t recognise the rank, casual sexism of it at the time. I was busy hero worshipping the Beatles and trying to learn everything about them. I worked hard to make that make sense because that’s what you do. We  interpret stuff from people we like in ways that are flattering to them.

Even after I rejected this sentiment (which came, thankfully, pretty quickly)…it’s still there. I remember it. I’ve no doubt it affects some of my implicit biases.

And this is a good reason to fight everyday, casual, “harmless” sexism. It’s not the only reason, but it is a really good one. Even “ironic” sexism (and racism and…) seems to feed into bias formation.